Panic/Don't Panic.

In America, in 1938, the CBS Radio Network broadcast an adaptation of H.G.Wells' The War Of The Worlds directed and narrated by Orson Welles. Aliens had arrived in New Jersey (as opposed to Woking in the original book) and for many it was all too much. People freaked out, thousands of them took to the streets in the hope of escaping the aliens. Mass panic ensued.

But, of course, aliens had not landed in New Jersey and these people over reacting had, accidentally, fallen into believing a lie. Often, these days, we call lies 'alternative facts' or 'post-truth' and last night I was at The Star of Greenwich for Greenwich Skeptics in the Pub's Are We Living In A 'Post-Truth' World with Dr Joseph Ucsinski, the Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami.

Dr Ucsinski (let's call him Joe from now on - host Chris French did) has crunched the stats and done the research and has come to the conclusion that, despite warnings from politicians and journalists, we are not living in a post-truth world where truth and untruth are the same thing. At least the vast majority of us are not. Even if the New York Times have gone from writing an average of one hundred articles that contain mention of conspiracy theories (in 2010) to about eight hundred per year (from 2020 onward, I wonder why that year?).

When trust wanes, conspiracy theories rise. But who is to blame for what appears to be a rise in conspiracy theory belief? You'll not be surprised to learn that the chief culprit is the Internet, particularly social media, particulary YouTube, TikTok, Facebook, and Twitter. Those most susceptible to belief in conspiracy theories tend to be Republicans and Trump supporters who get behind, and share, stories about QAnon, the 6th January attack on the Capitol Building, Pizzagate,and general anti-vax bullshit. Some have even killed their own children because their belief in conspiracy theories was so strong.

But is this narrative entirely true? Let's go back again to 1938 and that War of the Worlds broadcast. Did people really believe aliens had landed in New Jersey. Very few people listened to the broadcast in the first place and those that did would have heard numerous disclaimers during the broadcast - as well as adverts for Ovaltine - making it explicitly clear that what they were hearing was a work of fiction. It's hard to imagine broadcasting adverts for Ovaltine during an actual alien invasion. People didn't really run on to the streets. There was no mass panic.

So why the disjuncture? Back in the 1930s the newspaper industry was seriously threatened by the popularity of radio so 'flashy' newspaper headlines intended to discredit radio proved doubly useful. They helped sell papers and they helped to discredit their radio rivals. Newspapers were, not for the last time, spreading fake news about fake news.

Conspiracy theory belief hasn't really risen since then. Belief in conspiracy theories about the death of JFK saw a peak in the 70s, 80s, and 90s but have gone down a bit since (they actually seemed to go down about the time of Oliver Stone's 1991 film JFK which wasn't shy about spreading conspiracy theories), covid related conspiracies (from forced vaccinations to 5G and on to Bill Gates, tracking devices, and the big one - that it was all a 'plandemic') have remained on the same level since the pandemic began, and QAnon belief has stayed pretty stable since 2018.

 

The data, it seems, tells a different story to the headlines. Social media, as well as more traditional media, appears not to be changing as many minds as we might think. Most people are already pretty set in their beliefs or their systems of belief. There's correlation more than there is causation and most people don't use the Internet to look up conspiracy theories.

The most famous conspiracy theory website, Alex Jones' egregious InfoWars is ranked #3242 in popularity in the US. For some balance the New York Times is ranked #25 and for even more balance, and an interesting insight into what people really use the Internet for, PornHub is ranked #12. Yep, there's far more people out there wanking than trying to convince people the earth is flat.

Joe had an interesting take on the idea that conspiracy theories can lead people to transgressive and violent behaviour. His research suggests that the people who commit violent crimes and hateful acts in the name of conspiracy theories are the same sort of people who would commit violent and hateful acts anyway. Much of the reasoning is simply post-rationalisation.

Examples include the so called QAnon shaman who is now out of prison and selling yoga leggings. Jacob Chansley (his real name) was dismissed by his own lawyer as an "idiot". Another man, who remained nameless, claimed he was acting on instructions he'd received from Donald Trump through his car radio. Most of these people need medical treatment and probably can't get it.

Even the idea that Republicans, or conservatives - with a small c, are more prone to conspiracy theories isn't borne out from the evidence. It's dependent on what conspiracy theory you're talking. Democrats are equally susceptible to believing conspiracy theories about Trump and I've noticed a rise in people, amongst my friends, who support Palestinian freedom suggesting that the Hamas attacks on October 7th 2023 were somehow staged, faked, or, at the least, wildly exaggerated.

So if, according to the media, there is always a conspiracy theory panic but according to the data that actually isn't getting worse then what is really happening? Why do we worry about it more than we ever did? The answers aren't the most comfortable but they do, at least for me, make a lot of sense.

Certain politicians, most famously a former President and convicted felon who may well find himself in the White House again come November, are motivating conspiracy theory believers into acting, often violently, on those beliefs. Trump is aided by people like Georgia representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (who has a particular hatred for Disney who she believes are sexualising children) and the vile political commentator Tucker Carlson who is rather obsessed with the Great Replacement conspiracy theory. Both Carlson and Taylor Greene are, surprise surprise, big fans of guns.

They're in an ecosystem where everything seems to lead to a satanic paedophile ring and those accused of being satanic paedophiles range from Kamala Harris to the Pope and from Joe Biden to Tom Hanks. Believers in satanic paedophile conspiracy theories tend to have a certain make up as discovered by Joe and his team's studies. They tend to be xenophobic, pro-Trump, pro-Putin, anti-Biden, anti-abortion, and anti-vax as well as being particularly argumentative and violent both online and in real life.

Which has resulted in some of them sending death threats to children's hospitals and turning up to protest drag shows waving guns around. One statistic that has most definitely risen is that among the relatively small number of conspiracy theorists that are out there, there are now three times more of them that are likely to take violent, even lethal, action.

Three times as many - and Trump is continuing to drum up that violence. He won't stop. It had been a really interesting talk - even if finished on a rather pessimistic note. A fun (!) Q&A took in Ronald Reagan, Mitt Romney, Nazis, Brexit, the holocaust, Sandy Hook, Jeb Bush, Trump's overtures (after winning the Presidency in 2016) to Bernie Sanders (proving how often the far right and the far left find themselves working as allies for similar causes - even though with different motivation), and Trump's completely unfounded statement that Ted Cruz's dad killed JFK.

Cruz was a rival to Trump for leadership of the Republican party and, as with so much to do with Trump, this baseless accusation was done merely to harm a rival. Trump may be a massive big orange baby with a cock like the mushroom from the Mario computer game but Hitler looked, and acted, like a prick too. Conspiracy theories won't die when Trump dies and the damage he has done by weaponising them will stay with us for a very very long time. Joe Ucsinski didn't want to leave us with a message of fear (and I'm feeling very optimistic about the future today because the Tory cheats, criminals, and bullies are being booted out after a fourteen year shitshow) but, when it comes to America, and America's role in the world, it's hard to be anything but very afraid of the future.

Thanks to Jade, David, and Paula for joining me, to Professor Chris French and The Star of Greenwich and its friendly staff for hosting, to Goddard's Pie & Mash for tasty food beforehand, and, of course, to Joe Ucsinski for a really good talk.